The planet鈥檚 biggest sporting event 鈥� 鈥� is now underway, drawing a television audience of billions and a stadium audience of millions.
There鈥檚 no shortage of other to illustrate the scale of the tournament鈥檚 23rd edition. A record 48 teams have begun playing 108 matches across 16 venues in three North American countries, competing for a record prize pool of .
For demographers, a look at the competing countries also offers a snapshot of a world undergoing profound change.
And it raises an intriguing question: how much do factors such as a country鈥檚 population size and age alone weigh on chances of success?
Why size isn鈥檛 everything
The spread of countries represented this year is remarkable, as is the age range of talent taking to the field.
Portugal鈥檚 Cristiano Ronaldo is , while Spain鈥檚 18-year-old arrives as one of the game鈥檚 brightest young stars after helping his country .
has brought the youngest squad, with a median age of 25.4, while fields the oldest at 31.3. Those figures might mirror trends at home: C么te d'Ivoire鈥檚 median population age is just 18.1 years, compared with 34.3 in Iran.
Still, the relationship between a country鈥檚 football team and the age of its population isn鈥檛 always straightforward.
Japan has the oldest population of any nation at the tournament, with a median age of 49, while its squad 鈥� 鈥� has a median age of just 27.4.
That puts it within a statistical sweet spot in the tournament鈥檚 history: the optimum average age for a world cup finalist between 26 and 28.5 years old.
Population size might also seem like an obvious advantage at a world cup.
More people should mean a larger talent pool to draw from and, indeed, suggested this to be a top predictor for world cup qualification.
Brazil would certainly fit this theory. Home to more than 211 million people, it is the second most populous nation at the tournament and its most successful, with .
At the same time, size can鈥檛 ensure victory. The world鈥檚 two most populous nations, China and India, have never qualified for a men鈥檚 world cup finals, while the United States has reached only one semi-final despite its population exceeding 340 million.
The same statistical models that highlight the power of population also reveal glaring anomalies. Italy, boasting a massive reserve of talent, .
Then there are those small nations that seemingly punch above their demographic weight.
, with a population of just 185,000, is the smallest nation ever to qualify for a world cup. Every member of its squad plays professionally overseas 鈥� many in the Netherlands 鈥� illustrating how football talent can be developed far beyond a country鈥檚 borders.
Another stand-out is . With a population of just 3.4 million, the South American nation has won the world cup twice and remains one of the sport鈥檚 great overachievers.
Population may help produce football talent, but the world cup suggests other factors have an important part to play.
Demographics and dividends
As , wealth, coaching systems and long-established football cultures can be just as important as the size of a country鈥檚 player talent pool.
The same principle applies away from sport. Demographers have long argued that a country鈥檚 prospects can be influenced not just by how many people it has, but by the age structure of its population and how effectively it develops its human capital.
Many of the tournament鈥檚 countries with younger populations 鈥� particularly across Africa, Asia and the Pacific 鈥� have growing workforces and a large share of young people entering adulthood.
Economists refer to the opportunities created by a relatively large working-age population as the 鈥溾��.
Migration is also becoming increasingly important. Across much of Europe, immigration now accounts for a significant share of population growth, helping offset labour shortages and population ageing.
The world cup reflects this reality, with many national teams drawing on players whose family histories span multiple countries.
But neither a youthful population, strong migration nor sheer population size guarantees success 鈥� whether on or off the pitch.
The key, if this world cup offers countries any lesson in demography, is investment in people.
, Senior research fellow, and , Senior Research Officer,
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