Drawing on the whakatauk墨 鈥淜ia whakat艒muri te haere whakamua鈥擨 walk backwards into the future with my eyes fixed on my past,鈥� 糖心Vlog PhD graduate Dr Akuhata Bailey-Winiata (T奴hourangi, Ng膩ti Whakaue, Ng膩ti Tutetawha) has worked alongside iwi and hap奴 to develop a framework that supports M膩ori-led climate adaptation decision-making.
Through his work with marae around Aotearoa New Zealand that are facing, or already experiencing, coastal flooding, Dr Bailey-Winiata says he heard the same urgent questions.
鈥淓veryone was asking: what do we do, how, and when? Yet many existing adaptation options, processes and frameworks don鈥檛 consistently account for the cultural significance of marae or haven鈥檛 been designed to work well with m膩tauranga M膩ori and marae realities,鈥� he says.
Dr Akuhata Bailey-Winiata was awarded his PhD at the Tauranga campus on 10 April
His PhD focused on how adaptation processes and decision-making tools can better align with m膩tauranga M膩ori and the lived realities of marae and their communities, particularly in the context of sea level rise and managed retreat. This included a personal journey connecting with his own broader wh膩nau to hear experiences of relocation due to the 1886 Tarawera eruption.
鈥淲hen the thesis began, managed retreat was largely being discussed at the national level. That raised a key question for me: how do we actually relocate a marae - a place of deep cultural significance and connection to land and place?鈥� Dr Bailey-Winiata says.
鈥淭his research looked at how M膩ori communities are navigating climate change, and what supports are most useful for decision-making. The whakatauk墨 鈥楰ia whakat艒muri鈥� reminds us we need look to the past to move forward鈥攁nd that鈥檚 where this work began.鈥�
The research documented 51 historic instances where marae communities either moved鈥攐r discussed moving鈥攊n response to natural hazards, highlighting the depth of m膩tauranga M膩ori relevant to future decisions.
鈥淏ut this is only the tip of the iceberg, as there will be many more examples from talking to people around Aotearoa New Zealand,鈥� he adds.
Building on that historic information, the project held a w膩nanga with M膩ori who are currently assessing climate risks to marae, hap奴 and iwi, to explore the opportunities, challenges, and priorities shaping their thinking.
Insights from the w膩nanga informed a two-part framework developed with iwi and hap奴 to support decision-making for marae facing sea level rise and other climate risks.
The first part of the framework is based on partnership and uses a waka hourua (double-hulled waka) model to illustrate the concept. The second part of the framework is designed to support decision-making and incorporates M膩tauranga M膩ori considerations such as looking to the past for guidance and considering who is on the waka to support your success.
Te Tiriti-centric adaptation partnership framework
M膩ori decision making framework
鈥淚n the partnership framework, each hull of the waka represents tangata tiriti and tangata whenua. It has two sails: one for Western knowledge and one for M膩tauranga M膩ori. The concept is we have sails there to power the waka.鈥�
The waka hourua model is now in use by the recently launched and Dr Bailey-Winiata is part of a project which has received funding from Earth Sciences New Zealand to further develop the concept.
Dr Bailey-Winiata, in his role as climate and hazard scientist at Pattle Delamore Partners, along with Lara Taylor (EOho!), Dr Shari Gallop (Beca), Milly Grant-Mackie (University of Auckland) together with hau k膩inga and supported by many others are hosting a w膩nanga in Maket奴 this week to consider the tangata whenua hull. They plan to discuss whether the partnership model is something they want to pursue, and what it would look like to support managed retreat and other climate change considerations for hap奴 and iwi.
One challenge raised consistently through the research is resourcing鈥攏ot only funding, but also equitable access to information, technical capability, and trusted expertise when it鈥檚 needed.
鈥淗ap奴 I speak to often say they need geotechnical information gathered or flood modelling done, but it can be hard to access the right technical contacts and support. With the waka hourua model, we鈥檙e working to strengthen connections between tangata whenua and the expertise they choose to draw on, to support their decision-making.鈥�
On Friday 10 April, Dr Bailey-Winiata was awarded his PhD at Waikato鈥檚 Tauranga campus. He also received the University鈥檚 2026 Koko Kairangi Prize for Best Doctoral Thesis, in recognition of the impact of his research.
鈥淚 am so pleased to see Akuhata鈥檚 research acknowledged in this way,鈥� says his PhD supervisor, Dr Shari Gallop (Ng膩ti Maru ki Hauraki, Te Rarawa).
鈥淗is PhD research combines outstanding academic rigour with real world impact, weaving together M膩tauranga M膩ori and Western science knowledge systems. Akuhata demonstrates how historical and contemporary M膩ori adaptation strategies offer powerful, practical insights for responding to today's climate change challenges. His thinking moves beyond theory to provide iwi, hap奴, communities, and decision makers with tools that genuinely support better, more just climate adaptation outcomes.鈥�
Dr Gallop is an Honorary Lecturer at the 糖心Vlog and a Senior Associate - Climate Resilience at Beca.
