As nations prepare to gather in Brazil next week for this year鈥檚 United Nations climate summit , only a third have so far submitted the , known as Nationally Determined Contributions ().
China, the world鈥檚 largest emitter, and major fossil fuel exporters such as Iran, Russia and Australia, are among states that have updated their NDCs, but they have been criticised for lack of ambition.
Likewise, New Zealand, which announced in February it would commit to reducing emissions by 51鈥�55% below 2005 levels by 2035. This amounts to only 1鈥�5% above the country鈥檚 previous NDC of a 50% cut by 2030 and has been described as 鈥溾��.
This comes as UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres warned that and must change course urgently towards deeper and faster emissions cuts.
The requires states to pledge . Technically, New Zealand鈥檚 NDC represents a progression, albeit the smallest possible one.
It was criticised as insufficiently aligned with the Paris Agreement鈥檚 purpose to hold above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to keep it at 1.5掳C.
Lack of climate ambition
Several domestic climate-related legal and policy changes are sending a message that New Zealand鈥檚 coalition government isn鈥檛 treating climate change as a high priority.
The , which came into force at the end of 2024, has to explore and develop New Zealand鈥檚 petroleum and mineral resources (including metallurgical coal used in steel production), facilitating new fossil fuel use at home and abroad.
In August this year, the government passed the to overturn a ban on offshore oil and gas exploration which had been in place since 2018. It also pledged NZ$200 million to .
In October, the government . This will require an amendment to the country鈥檚 flagship climate legislation, the .
The previous target was to cut methane emissions from livestock by 25鈥�47% below 2017 levels, but the government has reduced this to 14鈥�24% and ruled out a methane tax on agricultural emissions. This is contrary to the Climate Change Commission鈥檚 recommendation to raise the target to 35鈥�47%.
New Zealand鈥檚 transport emissions but the government axed a . And recently, it and lifted the threshold for how big a company needs to be before it has to report on its efforts to cut emissions.
There are some welcome developments, including the government鈥檚 NZ$46 million investment in a climate finance initiative in partnership with the United Kingdom.
The Transforming Island Development through Electrification and Sustainability () fund will finance renewable energy projects in six Pacific Island countries 鈥� Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Cook Islands, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands 鈥� that currently rely on imported energy. This will strengthen the Pacific region鈥檚 renewable energy options and reduce reliance on polluting and expensive diesel imports.
Also positive are government plans to and to install , although critics point out has been made towards the latter.
But perhaps the clearest signal of the government鈥檚 move away from climate-conscious leadership is the decision in June this year to quit the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (). Established at COP26 in 2021, BOGA is an international coalition of states working to accelerate the managed phase-out of oil and gas production and support a just transition to clean energy.
Trade and climate commitments
Many of these moves have been defended as necessary to deliver on the government鈥檚 priority to build a stronger and more productive economy.
The government sees trade as crucial to this. It has heralded the free-trade agreement between the European Union and New Zealand as a successful catalyst for boosted trade, supporting 8% growth in two-way trade and reaching a record $21.6 billion of annual trade in goods and services since it came into force in May 2024.
But the EU-NZ free-trade agreement should also act as a reminder that international trade must go hand in hand with responsible action on climate change. The agreement commits both parties to:
effectively implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, including commitments with regard to nationally determined contributions and 鈥� to refrain from any action or omission that materially defeats the object and purpose of the Paris Agreement.
It also requires parties to:
promote the mutual supportiveness of trade and climate policies and measures, thereby contributing to the transition to a low greenhouse gas emission, resource-efficient and circular economy and to climate-resilient development.
The is to strengthen the global response to climate change by limiting global temperature rise. Government actions that loosen emissions targets and facilitate and invest in new fossil fuel use are .
Consequently, such actions risk undermining the EU-NZ free-trade agreement and other agreements crucial to delivering on the government鈥檚 promise of economic growth.
As New Zealand鈥檚 representatives head to Brazil, they should have this trade-climate connection firmly in mind. Climate-attuned policies at home alongside stronger international commitments, including an ambitiously revised NDC, are necessary for limiting destructive climate change. They also make good economic sense.
, Associate Professor of Law,
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